Catalonia

DOI: 10.3369/tethys.2013.10.03

Tethys no. 10 pp.: 25 - 34

Abstract

Between late spring and early fall, the development of storms is common in Catalonia. Despite the fact that they usually produce heavy showers of short duration, they can also involve severe weather with ice pellets or hail. While the latter usually affect inland regions, and there are numerous publications on these cases; the analysis of events affecting the coast and causing damage to public and private properties is not so well developed.

References

  • - Aran, M., Sairouni, A., Bech, J., Toda, J., Rigo, T., Cunillera, J., and Moré, J., 2007: Pilot project for intensive surveillance of hail events in Terres de Ponent (Lleida), Atmos Res, 83, 315–335, doi: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2005.09.013.
  • - Aran, M., Peña, J. C., and Torà, M., 2011: Atmospheric circulation patterns associated with hail events in Lleida (Catalonia), Atmos Res, 100, 428–438, doi: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2010.10.029.
  • - Atencia, A., Mediero, L., Llasat, M. C., and Garrote, L., 2011: Effect of radar rainfall time resolution on the predictive capability of a distributed hydrologic model, Hydrol Earth Syst Sci, 15, 3809–3827, doi: 10.5194/hess-15-3809-2011.
  • - Barnolas, M. and Llasat, M. C., 2007: A flood geodatabase and its climatological applications: the case of Catalonia for the last century, Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci, 7, 271–281, doi: 10.5194/nhess-7-271-2007.
  • - Barrera, A., Altava-Ortiz, V., Llasat, M. C., and Barnolas, M., 2007: Heavy rain prediction using deterministic and probabilistic models. The flash flood cases of 11-13th October 2005 in Catalonia (NE of Spain), Advances in Geosciences, 12, 121–126, doi: 10.5194/adgeo-12-121-2007.
  • - Bernal, M., 2008: Aplicación de un SIG al análisis espacial de las tormentas de granizo en el NE de la Península Ibérica, Universitat de Barcelona, Barcelona, treball del Màster Oficial en Meteorologia.
  • - Boshoms, M., 2008: Tempestes de calamarsa a Catalunya. Cap a la creació duna base de dades depisodis de calamarsa. Anàlisi temporal per al període (1996-2006), Universitat de Barcelona, Barcelona, treball del Màster Oficial en Meteorologia.
  • - Brooks, H. E. and Craven, J. P., 2002: A database of proximity soundings for significant severe thunderstorms, 1957-1993, American Meteorological Society, Preprints, 21st Conference on Severe Local Storms, San Antonio, TX, 639-642.
  • - Ceperuelo, M., Llasat, M. C., López, L., García, E., and Sánchez, J. L., 2006: Study of 11 September 2004 hailstorm event using radar identification of 2D systems and 3D cells, Advances in Geosciences, 1, 215–222, doi: 10.5194/adgeo-7-215-2006.
  • - Ceperuelo, M., Rigo, T., Llasat, M. C., and Sánchez, J. L., 2009: Improving hail identification in the Ebro valley region using radar observations: probability equations and warning thresholds, Atmos Res, 93, 474–482, doi: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2008.09.039.
  • - Dessens, J., Berthet, C., and Sánchez, J. L., 2007: A point hailfall classification based on hailpad measurements: The ANELFA scale, Atmos Res, 83, 132–139, doi: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2006.02.029.
  • - Farnell, C., Aran, M., Andrés, A., Busto, M., Pineda, N., and Torà, M., 2009: Study of the September 17th 2007 severe hailstorm in Pla d’Urgell. Part I: fieldwork and analysis of the hailpads, Tethys, 6, 69–81, doi: 10.3369/tethys.2009.6.05.
  • - Galway, J. G., 1956: The lifted index as a predictor of latent instability, Bull Amer Meteorol Soc, 37, 528–529.
  • - Gibergans-Bàguena, J. and Llasat, M. C., 2007: Improvement of the analog forecasting method by using local thermodynamic data. Application to autumn precipitation in Catalonia, Atmos Res, 86, 173–193, doi: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2007.04.002.
  • - Kain, J. S. and Fritsch, J. M., 1993: Convective parameterization for mesoscale models: The Kain-Fritsch scheme, in: The representation of cumulus convection in numerical models, Emanuel, K. A. and Raymond, D. J., Meteorological Monograph of the American Meteororological Society, 46, 165-170.
  • - Kunz, M., 2007: The skill of convective parameters and indices to predict isolated and severe thunderstorms, Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci, 7, 327–342, doi: 10.5194/nhess-7-327-2007.
  • - Llasat, M. C. and Corominas, J., 2010: Riscos associats al clima. Segon informe sobre el canvi climàtic a Catalunya, J.E. Llebot (coord.), Institut d’Estudis Catalans i Generalitat de Catalunya, Departament de la Vicepresidència, Consell Assessor per al Desenvolupament Sostenible de Catalunya, pp. 243-307, ISBN (IEC): 978-84-9965-027-2, ISBN (Gencat): 978-84-393-8615-5, Dip`osit Legal: B. 44160-2010, 2010.
  • - Llasat, M. C., Llasat-Botija, M., and López, L., 2009: A press database on natural risks and its application in the study of floods in northeastern Spain, Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci, 9, 2049–2061, doi: 10.5194/nhess-9-2049-2009.
  • - López, L., 2003: Convección atmosférica severa: pronóstico e identificación de tormentas de granizo, Universidad de León, tesis doctoral, 207 pp.
  • - Martín, F., Elizaga, F., Carretero, O., and San Ambrosio, I., 2007: Diagnóstico y predicción de la convección profunda, STAP Nota técnica Núm. 35.
  • - McGingley, J., 1986: Nowcasting Mesoscale Phenoma, ed. P.S. Ray, American Meteorological Society, Boston, Massachussets, 657-688.
  • - Merino, A., 2009: Caracterización termodinámica de la atmósfera en situaciones de granizo en el valle medio del Ebro y comparación con otras regiones de formación de tormentas, Universitat de Barcelona, Barcelona, treball del Master Oficial en Meteorologia.
  • - Miller, R. C., Bidner, A., and Maddox, R. A., 1972: Notes on analysis and severe storm forecasting procedures of the air force global weather control, AFGWC Tech. Rep 200, Air Weather Service, US Air Force, 102 pp.
  • - Mitzeva, R., Dimitrova, T., and Savtchenco, A., 2007: Enviromental conditions responsible for the type of precpitation in summer convective over Bulgaria, Faculty of Physics, University of Sofia and Agency Hail Suppression, Sofia, Bulgaria.
  • - Pineda, N., Aran, M., Andres, A., Busto, M., Farnell, C., and Torà, M., 2009: Study of the September 17th 2007 severe hailstorm in Pla d’Urgell. Part II: meteorological analysis, Tethys, 6, 83–103, doi: 10.3369/tethys.2009.6.06.
  • - Rigo, T., 2004: Estudio de sistemas convectivos mesoescalares en la zona mediterránea occidental mediante el uso de radar meteorológico, tesis doctoral, 215 pp.
  • - Rigo, T. and Llasat, M. C., 2007: Analysis of mesoscale convective systems in Catalonia using radar for the period 1996-2000, Atmos Res, 83, 458–472, doi: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2005.10.016.
  • - San Ambrosio, I., 2001: Primera valoración de algoritmos para la estimación de la probabilidad de ocurrencia de granizo, V Simposio Nacional de Predicción. Memorial “Alfonso Ascaso”, Madrid 20-23 Noviembre 2001, 6 pp.
  • - Sánchez, J. L., Fernández, M. V., Fernández, J. T., Tudurí, E., and Ramis, C., 2003: Analysis of mesoscale convective systems with hail precipitation, Atmos Res, 67-68, 573–588, doi: 10.1016/S0169-8095(03)00074-7.
  • - Weisman, M. L. and Klemp, J. B., 1986: Characteristics of Isolated Convective Storms. Mesoscale Meteorology and Forecasting, Ed. P.S. Ray, American Meteorological Society, Boston, Massachussets, 331-358.
  • - Witt, A., Eilts, M. D., Stumpf, G. J., Johnson, J. T., Mitchell, E. D., and Thomas, K. W., 1998: An enhanced hail detection algorithm for the WSR-88D, Weather Forecast, 13, 286–303, doi: 10.1175/1520-0434(1998)013<0286:AEHDAF>2.0.CO;2.

DOI: 10.3369/tethys.2012.9.02

Tethys no. 9 pp.: 13 - 24

Abstract

The publication of the fourth IPCC report, as well as the number of research results reported in recent years about the regionalization of climate projections, were the driving forces to justify the update of the report on climate change in Catalonia. Specifically, the new IPCC report contains new climate projections at global and continental scales, while several international projects (especially European projects PRUDENCE and ENSEMBLES) have produced continental-scale climate projections, which allow for distinguishing between European regions.

References

  • - Barrera-Escoda, A. and Cunillera, J., 2011: Climate change projections for Catalonia (NE Iberian Peninsula). Part I: Regional climate modeling, Tethys, 8, 77–89, doi: 10.3369/tethys.2011.8.08.
  • - Beniston, M., Stephenson, D. B., Christensen, O. B., Ferro, C. A. T., Frei, C., Goyette, S., Halsnaes, K., Holt, T., Jylhä, K., Koffi, B., Palutikof, J., Schöll, R., Semmler, T., and Woth, K., 2007: Future extreme events in European climate: an exploration of regional climate model projections, Clim Change, 81, 71–95, doi: 10.1007/s10584–006–9226–z.
  • - Brunet, M., Casado, M. J., de Castro, M., Galán, P., López, J. A., Martín, J. M., Pasto, A., Petisco, E., Ramos, P., Ribalaygua, J., Rodríguez, E., Sanz, I., and Torres, L., 2009: Generación de escenarios regionalizados de cambio climático para España, Agencia Estatal de Meteorología, Madrid, pp. 165.
  • - Calbó, J., 2009a: Projeccions globals; el 4t informe del GIECC. Aigua i canvi climàtic. Diagnosi dels impactes previstos a Catalunya, Agència Catalana de l’Aigua, Departament de Medi Ambient i Habitatge, Generalitat de Catalunya, Barcelona, pp. 73-81.
  • - Calbó, J., 2009b: Projeccions regionals; d’Europa a la península Ibèrica. Aigua i canvi climàtic. Diagnosi dels impactes previstos a Catalunya, Agència Catalana de l’Aigua, Departament de Medi Ambient i Habitatge, Generalitat de Catalunya, Barcelona, pp. 83-90.
  • - Calbó, J., 2009c: Possible Climate Change Scenarios with Specific Reference to Mediterranean Regions, S. Sabater and D. Barceló (Eds.), Water Scarcity in the Mediterranean: Perspectives Under Global Change, Handbook of Environmental Chemistry, Springer-Verlag, doi: 10.1007/698 2009 28.
  • - Calbó, J., Cunillera, J., Llasat, M. C., Llebot, J. E., and Martín-Vide, J., 2009: Projeccions climàtiques per a Catalunya. Aigua i canvi climàtic. Diagnosi dels impactes previstos a Catalunya, Agència Catalana de l’Aigua, Departament de Medi Ambient i Habitatge, Generalitat de Catalunya, Barcelona, pp. 91-99.
  • - Calbó, J., Sanchez-Lorenzo, A., Cunillera, J., and Barrera-Escoda, A., 2010: Projeccions i Escenaris futurs. 2n Informe sobre el Canvi Climàtic a Catalunya, J. E. Llebot. Grup d’Experts en Canvi Climàtic de Catalunya, Generalitat de Catalunya i Institut d’Estudis Catalans, Barcelona, pp. 183-239.
  • - Castro, M. D., Martín-Vide, J., and Alonso, S., 2005: El clima de España: pasado, presente y escenarios para el siglo XXI, Impactos del Cambio Climático en España.
  • - Christensen, J. H., 2005: Prediction of Regional scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining EuropeaN Climate change risks and Effects (PRUDENCE) Final Report, J. H. Christensen coord., 269 pp.
  • - Christensen, J. H., Hewitson, B., Busuioc, A., Chen, A., Gao, X., Held, I., Jones, R., Kolli, R. K., Kwon, W. T., Laprise, R., Magaña Rueda, V., Mearns, L., Menéndez, C. G., Räisänen, J., Rinke, A., Sarr, A., and Whetton, P., 2007: Regional Climate Projections, Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Chen, Z., Marquis, M., Averyt, K. B., Tignor, M., and Miller, H. L. (eds.). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge (UK), climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
  • - Christensen, O. B. and Christensen, J. H., 2004: Intensification of extreme European summer precipitation in a warmer climate, Glob Planet Change, 44, 107–117, doi: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2004.06.013.
  • - Déqué, M., Jones, R. G., Wild, M., Giorgi, F., Christensen, J. H., Hassell, D. C., Vidale, P. L., Rockel, B., Jacob, D., Kjellström, E., De Castro, M., Kucharski, F., and van den Hurk, B., 2005: Global high resolution versus Limited Area Model climate change projections over Europe: quantifying confidence level from PRUDENCE results, Clim Dyn, 25, 653–670, doi: 10.1007/s00 382–005–0052–1.
  • - Déqué, M., Rowel, D. P., Lüthi, D., Giorgi, F., Christensen, J. H., Rockel, B., Jacob, D., Kjellström, E., De Castro, M., and van den Hurk, B., 2007: An intercomparison of regional climate simulations for Europe: assessing uncertainties in model projections, Clim Change, 81, 53–70, doi: 10.1007/s10584–006–9228–x.
  • - Diffenbaugh, N. S., Pal, J. S., Giorgi, F., and Gao, X., 2007: Heat stress intensification in the Mediterranean climate change hotspot, Geophys Res Lett, 34, L11 706, doi: 10.1029/2007GL030000.
  • - Gaertner, M. A., 2009: Técnicas y aplicaciones de regionalización dinámica, Brunet, M., Sigró, J., Aguilar, E. (Eds.). Observed and modelled regional climate change. Asociación Española de Climatología.
  • - Gaertner, M. A., Jacob, D., Domínguez, M., Padorno, E., Sánchez, E., and De Castro, M., 2007: Tropical cyclones over the Mediterranean Sea in climate change simulations, Geophys Res Lett, 34, L14 711, doi: 10.1029/2007GL029977.
  • - Gao, X., Pal, J. S., and Giorgi, F., 2006: Projected changes in mean and extreme precipitation over the Mediterranean region from a high resolution double nested RCM simulation, Geophys Res Lett, 33, L03 706, doi:10.1029/2005GL024954.
  • - Gibelin, A. L. and Déqué, E. M., 2003: Anthropogenic climate change over the Mediterranean region simulated by a global variable resolution model, Clim Dyn, 20, 327–339, doi: 10.1007/s00382–002–0277–1.
  • - Giorgi, F. and Lionello, P., 2008: Climate change projections for the Mediterranean region, Glob Planet Change, 63, 90–104, doi: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2007.09.005.
  • - Goddard, L. and Baethgen, W., 2009: The urgent need for improved climate models and predictions, EOS Transactions AGU, 90, 343, doi: 10.1029/2009EO390004.
  • - Hewitt, 2005: The ENSEMBLES Project - Providing ensemblebased predictions of climate changes and their impacts, The EGGS, EGU newsletter, 13, 22–25.
  • - IPCC, 2007: Climate change 2007: The physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Chen, Z., Marquis, M., Averyt, K. B., Tignor, M., and Miller, H. L. (eds.). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge (UK) and New York (USA), 996 pp.
  • - Jiménez-Guerrero, P., 2007: Application of climate models within supercomputing frameworks, Teraflop, 94, p. 3.
  • - Kjellström, E., Bäring, L., Jacob, D., Jones, R., Lenderink, G., and Schär, C., 2007: Modelling daily temperature extremes: recent climate and future changes over Europe, Clim Change, 81, 249–265, doi: 10.1007/s10584–006–9220–5.
  • - López-Moreno, J. I., Beniston, M., and García-Ruiz, J. M., 2008: Environmental change and water management in the Pyrenees: Facts and future perspectives for Mediterranean mountains, Glob Planet Change, 61, 300–312, doi: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2007.10.004.
  • - McGuffie, K. and Henderson-Sellers, A., 1990: Introducción a los modelos climáticos, Editorial Omega, Barcelona, 246 pp.
  • - Nakićenović, N., Swart, R., Alcamo, J., Davis, G., de Vries, B., Fenhann, J., Gaffin, S., Gregory, K., Grübler, A., Jung, T. Y., Kram, T., La Rovere, E. L., Michaelis, L., Mori, S., Morita, T., Pepper, W., Pitcher, H., Price, L., Riahi, K., Roehrl, A., Rogner, H. H., Sankovski, A., Schlesinger, M., Shukla, P., Smith, S., van Rooijen, S., Victor, N., and Dadi, D., 2000: Emissions Scenarios 2000-Special Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (SRES), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge (UK), 570 pp.
  • - Ohfuchi, W., Sasaki, H., Masumoto, Y., and Nakamura, H., 2005: Mesoscale Resolving Simulations of the Global Atmosphere and Ocean on the Earth Simulator, EOS Transactions AGU, 86, 45, doi: 10.1029/2005EO050002.
  • - Petisco, E., Martín, J. M., and Alonso, J., 2006: Escenarios de temperatura y precipitación para la España Peninsular y Baleares durante el período 2001-2100 basados en “Downscaling” estadístico mediante métodos de análogos, Proceedings XXIX Jornadas Científicas de la AME, Pamplona.
  • - Randall, D. A., Wood, R. A., Bony, S., Colman, R., Fichefet, T., Fyfe, J., Kattsov, V., Pitman, A., Shukla, J., Srinivasan, J., Stouffer, R. J., Sumi, A., and Taylor, K. E., 2007: Climate Models and Their Evaluation, Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Chen, Z., Marquis, M., Averyt, K. B., Tignor, M. and Miller, H.L. (eds.). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge (UK) and New York (USA), climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
  • - Ribalaygua, J., Torres, L., and del Carre, M., 2009: El método de análogos en el downscaling estadístico, Brunet, M., Sigró, J., Aguilar, E. (Eds.). Observed and modelled regional climate change. Asociación Española de Climatología, pp. 41-48.
  • - Rowell, D. P., 2005: A scenario of European climate change for the late twenty-first century: seasonal means and interannual variability, Clim Dyn, 25, 837–849, doi: 10.1007/s00382–005–0068–6.
  • - Rowell, D. P. and Jones, R. G., 2006: Causes and uncertainty of future summer drying over Europe, Clim Dyn, 27, 281–299, doi: 10.1007/s00382–006–0125–9.
  • - Sánchez, E., Gallardo, C., Gaertner, M. A., Arribas, A., and De Castro, M., 2004: Future climate extreme events in the Mediterranean simulated by a regional climate model: a first approach, Glob Planet Change, 44, 163–180, doi: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2004.06.010.
  • - SMC, 2011: Butlletí anual d’indicadors climàtics 2010, Servei Meteorològic de Catalunya, Departament de Territori i Sostenibilitat, Generalitat de Catalunya, Barcelona, 60 pp.
  • - Tapiador, F. J., Sánchez, E., and Gaertner, M. A., 2007: Regional changes in precipitation in Europe under an increased greenhouse emissions scenario, Geophys Res Lett, 34, L06 701, doi: 10.1029/2006GL029035.
  • - Van der Linden, P. and Mitchell, J. F. B., 2009: ENSEMBLES. Climate change and its impacts at seasonal, deacadal and centennial timescales, Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter (UK), 160 pp.
  • - Wigley, T. M. L., Raper, S. C. B., Hulme, M., and Smith, S., 2000: The MAGICC/SCENGEN Climate Scenario Generator: Version 2.4, Technical Manual, Climatic Research Unit, UEA, Norwich (UK), 48 pp.

DOI: 10.3369/tethys.2011.8.08

Tethys no. 8 pp.: 75 - 87

Abstract

This work presents a dynamical technique of climate downscaling to generate projections for the 21st Century in Catalonia, based on the outputs of the atmosphere-ocean global coupled model ECHAM5/MPI-OM. This technique consists in long integrations (5 years) with the MM5 mesoscalar model through three one-way nested domains of 135, 45 and 15 km of horizontal resolution and 23 vertical levels. Two possible emission scenarios of the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios are used for the generation of downscaled projections: a severe one (A2) and a moderate one (B1).

References

  • - Altava-Ortiz, V., 2010: Caracterització i monitoratge de les sequeres a Catalunya i nord del País Valencià. Càlcul d’escenaris climàtics per al segle XXI, Tesi Doctoral, Publicació Interna, Departament d’Astronomia i Meteorologia, Universitat de Barcelona, Barcelona, 296 pp.
  • - Brunet, M., Casado, M. J., de Castro, M., Galán, P., López, J. A., Martín, J. M., Pastor, A., Petisco, E., Ramos, P., Ribalaygua, J., Rodríguez, E., Sanz, I., and Torres, L., 2009: Generación de escenarios regionalizados de cambio climático para España, Agencia Estatal de Meteorología, Ministerio de Medio Ambiente y Medio Rural y Marino, Madrid, informe tècnic, 165 pp., http://www.aemet.es/documentos/es/elclima/cambio_climat/escenarios/Informe_Escenarios.pdf.
  • - Delworth, T. L., Broccoli, A. J., Rosati, A., Stouffer, R. J., Balaji, V., Beesley, J. A., Cooke,W. F., Dixon, K.W., Dunne, J., Dunne, K. A., Durachta, J.W., Findell, K. L., Ginoux, P., Gnanadesikan, A., Gordon, C. T., Griffies, S. M., Gudgel, R., Harrison, M. J., Held, I. M., Hemler, R. S., Horowitz, L. W., Klein, S. A., Knutson, T. R., Kushner, P. J., Langenhorst, A. R., Lee, H.-C., Lin, S.-J., Lu, J., Malyshev, S. L., Milly, P. C. D., Ramaswamy, V., Russell, J., Schwarzkopf, M. D., Shevliakova, E., Sirutis, J. J., Spelman, M. J., Stern, W. F., Winton, M., Wittenberg, A. T., Wyman, B., Zeng, F., and Zhang, R., 2006: GFDL’s CM2 global coupled climate models. Part I: Formulation and simulation characteristics, J Clim, 19, 643–674.
  • - Déqué, M., Jones, R. G., Wild, M., Giorgi, F., Christensen, J. H., Hassell, D. C., Vidale, P. L., Rockel, B., Jacob, D., Kjellström, E., Castro, M., Kucharski, F., and Hurk, B., 2005: Global high resolution versus limited area model climate change projections over europe: quantifying confidence level from prudence results, Clim Dyn, 25, 653–670, doi: 10.1007/s00382–005–0052–1.
  • - Dudhia, J., 1989: Numerical study of convection observed during the winter monsoon experiment using a mesoscale twodimensional model, J Atmos Sci, 46, 3077–3107.
  • - Dudhia, J., Gill, D., Manning, K., Wang, W., and Bruyere, C., 2005: PSU/NCAR Mesoscale Modeling System Tutorial Class Notes and Users’ Guide (MM5 Modeling System Version 3), Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Division, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA, http://www.mmm.ucar.edu/mm5/documents/tutorial-v3-notes.html.
  • - Fernández, J., Montávez, J. P., Sáenz, J., González-Rouco, J. F., and Zorita, E., 2007: Sensitivity of the MM5 mesoscale model to physical parameterizations for regional climate studies: Annual cycle, J Geophys Res-Atmospheres, 112, D04, 101, doi: 10.1029/2005JD006649.
  • - Grell, G. A., 1993: Prognostic evaluation of assumptions used by cumulus parameterizations, Mon Weather Rev, 121, 764–787.
  • - Grell, G. A., Dudhia, J., and Stauffer, D. R., 1994: A description of the fifth-generation Penn State/NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5), NCAR Technical Note 398, Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Division, 122 pp.
  • - Gutiérrez, J. M., Herrera, S., San-Martín, D., Sordo, C., Rodríguez, J. J., Frochoso, M., Ancell, R., Fernández, J., Cofiño, A. S., Pons, M. R., and Rodríguez, M. A., 2010: Escenarios regionales probabilísticos de cambio climático en Cantabria: Termopluviometría, Universidad de Cantabria y Consejería de Medio Ambiente, Gobierno de Cantabria, Santander, informe tècnic, 169 pp., http://www.meteo.unican.es/files/projects/escenariosCantabria/ClimaCantabria_Informe.pdf.
  • - Hasumi, H. and Emori, S., 2004: K-1 coupled GCM (MIROC) description, Center for Climate System Research, University of Tokyo, National Institute for Environmental Studies and Frontier Research Center for Global Change, K-1 Technical Report No. 1, 34 pp.
  • - Hong, S. Y. and Pan, H. L., 1996: Nonlocal boundary layer vertical diffusion in a medium-range forecast model, Mon Weather Rev, 124, 2322–2339.
  • - Kim, S. J., Flato, G., and Boer, G., 2003: A coupled climate model simulation of the Last Glacial Maximum, Part 2: approach to equilibrium, Clim Dyn, 20, 635–661.
  • - Kunkel, K. E., Andsager, K., and Easterling, D. R., 1999: Longterm trends in extreme precipitation events over the conterminous United States and Canada, J Clim, 12, 2515–2527.
  • - Liebmann, B., Vera, C. S., Carvalho, L. M. V., Camilloni, I. A., Hoerling, M. P., Allured, D., Barros, V. R., Báez, J., and Bidegain, M., 2004: An observed trend in central South American precipitation, J Clim, 17, 4357–4367, doi: 10.1175/3205.1.
  • - Livezey, R. E. and Chen,W. Y., 1983: Statistical field significance and its determination by Monte Carlo techniques, MonWeather Rev, 111, 46–59.
  • - Marsland, S. J., Haak, H., Jungclaus, J. H., Latif, M., and Röske, F., 2003: The Max-Planck-Institute global ocean/sea ice model with orthogonal curvilinear coordinates, Ocean Model, 5, 91–127, doi: 10.1016/S1463–5003(02)00015–X.
  • - Montávez, J. P., 2008: Proyecciones regionales de cambio climático con modelos climáticos regionales: Región de Murcia, Jornadas de colaboración internacional en estudios de cambio climático y su interacción con los recursos hídricos regionales, 25-28 de noviembre, Universidad Politécnica de Cartagena, Murcia, http://www.upct.es/_agua/ABSTRACT_PONENCIAS/PRESENTACION_JMONTAVEZ.pdf.
  • - Nakićenović, N., Swart, R., Alcamo, J., Davis, G., de Vries, B., Fenhann, J., Gaffin, S., Gregory, K., Grübler, A., Jung, T. Y., Kram, T., La Rovere, E. L., Michaelis, L., Mori, S., Morita, T., Pepper, W., Pitcher, H., Price, L., Riahi, K., Roehrl, A., Rogner, H.-H., Sankovski, A., Schlesinger, M., Shukla, P., Smith, S., van Rooijen, S., Victor, N., and Dadi, D., 2000: Emissions Scenarios 2000-Special Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 570 pp., http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/sres/emission/index.php?idp=0.
  • - Roeckner, E., Bäuml, G., Bonaventura, L., Brokopf, R., Esch, M., Giorgetta, M., Hagemann, S., Kirchner, I., Kornblueh, L., Manzini, E., Rhodin, A., Schlese, U., Schulzweida, U., and Tompkins, A., 2003: The atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM5. Part I, Max-Planck Institut für Meteorologie, Hamburg, Alemanya, Report No. 349, 127 pp., http://www.mpimet.mpg.de/fileadmin/publikationen/Reports/max_scirep_349.pdf.
  • - Roeckner, E., Lautenschlager, M., and Schneider, H., 2006a: IPCCAR4 MPI-ECHAM5 T63L31 MPI-OM GR1.5L40 SRESA2 run no.1: atmosphere 6 HOUR values MPImet/MaD Germany, World Data Center for Climate, Hamburg, Alemanya, doi: 10.1594/WDCC/EH5-T63L31_OM-GR1.5L40_A2_1_6H.
  • - Roeckner, E., Lautenschlager, M., and Schneider, H., 2006b: IPCCAR4MPI-ECHAM5 T63L31 MPI-OM GR1.5L40 SRESB1 run no.1: atmosphere 6 HOUR values MPImet/MaD Germany, World Data Center for Climate, Hamburg, Alemanya, doi: 10.1594/WDCC/EH5-T63L31_OM-GR1.5L40_B1_1_6H.
  • - Salathé Jr, E. P., Steed, R., Mass, C. F., and Zahn, P. H., 2008: A high-resolution climate model for the US Pacific Northwest: Mesoscale feedbacks and local responses to climate change, J Clim, 21, 5708–5726, doi: 10.1175/2008JCLI2090.1.
  • - Skamarock, W. C., Klemp, J. B., Dudhia, J., Gill, D. O., Barker, D. M., Wang, W., and Powers, J. G., 2005: A description of the Advanced Research WRF Version 2, Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Division, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, EUA, NCAR Technical Note NCAR/TN-468+STR, 88 pp., http://www.mmm.ucar.edu/wrf/users/docs/arw_v2.pdf.
  • - Ulden, A. P. V. and Van Oldenborgh, G. J., 2006: Large-scale atmospheric circulation biases and changes in global climate model simulations and their importance for climate change in Central Europe, Atmos Chem Phys, 6, 863–881, doi: 10.5194/acp–6–863–2006.
  • - Uppala, S. M., Kållberg, P. W., Simmons, A. J., Andrae, U., da Costa Bechtold, V., Fiorino, M., Gibson, J. K., Haseler, J., Hernández, A., Kelly, G. A., Li, X., Onogi, K., Saarinen, S., Sokka, N., Allan, R. P., Andersson, E., Arpe, K., Balmaseda, M. A., Beljaars, A. C. M., van de Berg, L., Bidlot, J., Bormann, N., Caires, S., Chevallier, F., Dethof, A., Dragosavac, M., Fisher, M., Fuentes, M., Hagemann, S., Hólm, E., Hoskins, B. J., Isaksen, L., Janssen, P. A. E. M., Jenne, R., McNally, A. P., Mahfouf, J.-F., Morcrette, J.-J., Rayner, N. A., Saunders, R. W., Simon, P., Sterl, A., Trenberth, K. E., Untch, A., Vasiljevic, D., Viterbo, P., and Woollen, J., 2005: The ERA-40 re-analysis, Q J R Meteorol Soc, 131, 2961–3012, doi: 10.1256/qj.04.176.

DOI: 10.3369/tethys.2010.7.07

Tethys no. 7 pp.: 75 - 86

Abstract

The meteorological model WRF-ARW (Weather Research and Forecasting - Advanced Research WRF) is a new generation model that has a worldwide growing community of users. In the framework of a project that studies the feasibility of implementing it operationally at the Meteorological Service of Catalonia, a verification of the forecasts produced by the model in several cases of precipitation observed over Catalonia has been carried out.

References

  • - Borge, R., Alexandrov, V., del Vas, J. J., Lumbreras, J., and Rodríguez, E., 2008: A comprehensive sensitivity analysis of the WRF model for air quality applications over the Iberian Peninsula, Atmos Environ, 42, 8560–8574, doi: 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2008.08.032.
  • - Davis, C. A., Brown, B., and Bullock, R., 2006: Object-based verification of precipitation forecasts. Part II: Application to convective rain systems, Mon Wea Rev, 134, 1785–1795, doi: 10.1175/MWR3146.1.
  • - Ebert, E. E., 2008: Fuzzy verification of high-resolution gridded forecasts: a review and proposed framework, Meteorol Appl, 15, 51–64, doi: 10.1002/met.25.
  • - Gallus, W. A. and Bresch, J. F., 2006: Comparison of Impacts of WRF Dynamic Core, Physics Package, and Initial Conditions on Warm Season Rainfall Forecasts, Mon Wea Rev, 134, 2632–2641, doi: 10.1175/MWR3198.1.
  • - Hong, S.-Y., Noh, Y., and Dudhia, J., 2006: A new vertical diffusion package with an explcit treatment of entrainment processes, Mon Wea Rev, 134, 2318–2341, doi:10.1175/MWR3199.1.
  • - Jankov, I., Gallus, W. A., Segal, M., and Koch, S. E., 2007: Influence of Initial Conditions on the WRF-ARW Model QPF Response to Physical Parameterization Changes, Wea Forecasting, 22, 501–519, doi: 10.1175/WAF998.1.
  • - Kain, J., Weiss, S., Baldwin, M., Carbin, G., Bright, D., Levit, J., and Hart, J., 2005: Evaluating high-resolution configurations of the WRF model that are used to forecast severe convective weather: The 2005 SPC/NSSL spring experiment, Preprints, 21st Conf. on Weather Analysis and Forecasting, Washington, D.C., Amer. Meteor. Soc., 2A.5, http://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/94843.pdf.
  • - Kain, J. S., Weiss, S. J., Levit, J. J., Baldwin, M. E., and Bright, D. R., 2006: Examination of convection-allowing configurations of the WRF model for the prediction of severe convective weather: The SPC/NSSL Spring Program 2004, Wea Forecasting, 21, 167–181, doi: 10.1175/WAF906.1.
  • - Klemp, J. B., 2006: Advances in the WRF model for convectionresolving forecasting, Advances in Geosciences, 7, 25–29.
  • - Llasat, M. C., 2001: An objective classification of rainfall events on the basis of their convective features: application to rainfall intensity in the northeast of Spain, Int J Climatol, 21, 1385–1400, doi: 10.1002/joc.692.
  • - Mateo, J., Ballart, D., Brucet, C., Aran, M., and Bech, J., 2009: A study of a heavy rainfall event and a tornado outbreak during the passage of a squall line over Catalonia, Atmos Res, 93, 131–146, doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2008.09.030.
  • - Roberts, N. M. and Lean, H. W., 2008: Scale-Selective Verification of Rainfall Accumulations from High-Resolution Forecasts of Convective Events, Mon Wea Rev, 136, 78–97, doi: 10.1175/2007MWR2123.1.
  • - Sairouni, A., Moré, J., Toda, J., Miró, J. R., Aran, M., and Cunillera, J., 2007: Verificació dels models de mesoescala operatius al Servei Meteorològic de Catalunya, Notes d’estudi del Servei Meteorològic de Catalunya, n. 71, 78 pp. (ISBN 978-84-393-7590-6).
  • - Skamarock, W. C., Klemp, J. B., Dudhia, J., Gill, D. O., Barker, D. M., Wang, W., and Powers, J. G., 2005: A description of the Advanced Research WRF Version 2, NCAR Tech Notes-468+STR, (rev. 2007).
  • - Thompson, G., Rasmussen, R. M., and Manning, K., 2004: Explicit forecasts of winter precipitation using an improved bulk microphysics scheme. Part I: Description and sensitivity analysis, Mon Wea Rev, 132, 519–542, doi: 10.1175/1520–0493(2004)132<0519:EFOWPU>2.0.CO;2.
  • - Wang, W., Barker, D., Bray, J., Bruyère, C., Duda, M., Dudhia, J., Gill, D., and Michalakes, J., 2007: User’s Guide for Advanced Research WRF (ARW) Modeling System Version 2.2, Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Division - National Center for Atmospheric Research (MMM-NCAR).
  • - Weisman, M. L., Davis, C.,Wang,W., Manning, K.W., and Klemp, J. B., 2008: Experiences with 0-36-h Explicit Convective Forecasts with the WRF-ARW Model, Wea Forecasting, 23, 407–437, doi: 10.1175/2007WAF2007 005.1.
  • - Wilks, D. S., 1995: Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences: An Introduction, Academic Press, 467 pp.
  • - Wisse, J. S. P. and Vilà-Guerau de Arellano, J., 2004: Analysis of the role of the planetary boundary layer schemes during a severe convective storm, Ann Geophys, 22, 1861–1874, doi:10.5194/angeo–22–1861–2004.



Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License


Indexed in Scopus, Thomson-Reuters Emerging Sources Citation Index (ESCI), Scientific Commons, Latindex, Google Scholar, DOAJ, ICYT (CSIC)

Partially funded through grants CGL2007-29820-E/CLI, CGL2008-02804-E/, CGL2009-07417-E and CGL2011-14046-E of the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation



newnewnew
Syndicate content